Outlook for China's new energy vehicle market in 2025: Sales break new highs, driven by both intelligence and globalization

1. Sales and penetration rate reach new highs, with new energy surpassing fuel vehicles for the first time

    According to the prediction of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 15-16 million units by 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 25%, and the penetration rate will exceed 51%, surpassing the sales of fuel vehicles for the first time. This growth is mainly due to the explosion of hybrid models, whose proportion is expected to form a 5:5 equilibrium with pure electric models. At the policy level, the "trade in" subsidy policy continues to be strengthened, and scrapped old cars can receive a maximum subsidy of 20000 yuan for purchasing new energy vehicles, which is expected to drive an increase of over 5 million vehicles.

2. The year of hybrid electric vehicles begins, and car companies are laying out diversified power routes

    To balance costs and market demand, car companies are accelerating the layout of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and extended range models. CATL has released the Snapdragon Super Hybrid Battery with a pure electric range of over 400 kilometers, which not only relieves the pressure on the battery supply chain but also meets the long-distance needs of users.

3. Accelerated export and globalization layout to address international challenges

   Despite the increasing trade barriers in the European and American markets, China's exports of new energy vehicles remain resilient. The export volume is expected to reach 6.2 million vehicles by 2025, with a focus on Latin America, ASEAN, and the Middle East markets. In addition, the deepening of international supply chain cooperation, such as the introduction of lightweight aluminum alloys from Mexico and intelligent cockpit software from Finland, demonstrates the global integration capability of China's industrial chain.

4. Industry exhibitions and technological innovation showcase the vitality of the industry

   The 2025 China International New Energy Vehicle Technology Exhibition has become a global focus, attracting 587 companies to participate and showcasing 4972 cutting-edge technologies such as solid-state batteries and brain computer interfaces.

   In 2025, China's new energy vehicle industry is shifting from "high-speed growth" to "high-quality development" under the synergistic effect of policies, technology, and market. Intelligence and globalization have become the main lines of competition, and the improvement of enterprise profitability marks the industry entering a mature stage. Faced with the uncertainty of the international environment, Chinese car companies need to continue to innovate, consolidate their global leading position through technological breakthroughs and ecological cooperation.